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Inside the Wild Stock Market for Politics Where Traders Bet On Our Next President
How PredictIt turned a chaotic election into a haven for political junkies looking to make a buck
Right now someone, somewhere, is trying to make money off the latest news cycle. When the coronavirus pandemic began sweeping the globe, people began flipping hand sanitizer, while fashion brands pivoted to selling masks. When nationwide protests against police brutality and systemic racism erupted in the wake of George Floyd’s murder, some retailers saw an opportunity to sell merch, such as Black Lives Matter–themed wine stoppers and garden gnomes. And when President Trump tweeted on October 2 that he had tested positive for Covid-19, traders looking to earn quick cash on yet another campaign hiccup turned to PredictIt, an online prediction market where people buy and sell shares of what are essentially futures contracts for political events like elections, nominations, and presidential pardons.
I was one of them. Around 1:00 in the morning of October 2, I checked my phone one final time before going to bed and saw the news. While the rest of the waking world lit up social media, I lay in bed frantically refreshing PredictIt. There, prices were rising for bets that Mike Pence or Kamala Harris would win the presidential…
