In 2019, the Shakeup of the World Order Got Back on Track
We had a good year forecasting geopolitics and the global economy. Here, a look back at the predictions.
The march to a populist new world order seemed to be on shaky ground at the start of 2019. President Trump was bowing to the power of new House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who, fresh off a massive midterms triumph, refused to fund his wall, postponed his State of the Union address, and forced him to cancel a government shutdown without concessions. In the U.K., too, politics were paralyzed two years after the vote for Brexit.
In my geopolitical forecast for 2019, I looked at this state of affairs, alongside predictions that the world was in danger of tipping into recession, and wondered aloud how the already-irate populations of numerous countries would respond once economic conditions worsened.
That continues to be a question, but not for this year: The global economy, while slowing, turned away from outright contraction. In the United States, joblessness went to a half-century low, and stock markets hit repeated all-time highs. And, by the end of the year, fortunes turned positive for populism as a whole.
Trump — now impeached — seems paradoxically at the apex of his presidency thus far. He closes the…
