No Mercy No Malice

Scott Galloway: This Is the Best Time to Start a Business

The economic flood gates are about to open wide

Photo: Luis Ascenso/CC BYY 2.0

Post-crisis periods are among history’s most productive eras. London rebuilt after the Great Fire with grand new architecture, and Europe, after the worst of its plagues, underwent a commercial revolution. The Marshall Plan turned enemies into allies, fomenting peace and prosperity for more than half a century. Leaders also emerge from crises. Ulysses S. Grant was a washed-up soldier without prospects until war broke out, but that war created the opportunity for Grant to save the Union and advance the cause of freedom. This is all to say: In the next 36 months, I believe our economy will birth a new generation of web 3.0 firms and leaders. Why?

I’ve started nine businesses. The best predictive signal for their success has turned out to be the phase of the economic cycle in which they were started. Put simply, the best time to start a business is on the heels of a recession. And while pandemic economics haven’t resulted in a garden-variety recession — in either its duration (short) or its recovery (K-shaped) — there are factors that make this the best time to start a business in more than a decade:

• Unprecedented stimulus and savings resulting in a Nazaré-like wave of consumer spending.
• A gestalt among consumers and enterprises to question the status quo and be open to new products and services.
• The emergence of new fields and the capital to disrupt traditional industries as immunities kick in and monopoles are broken up.

Nazaré

The massive waves of Portugal are a function of the Nazaré Canyon, a submarine valley 5,000 meters deep and 2,300 kilometers long that functions as a ripple polarizer. Ocean swells build up over thousands of miles and flow through this geological fault with minimal dissipation of energy. I just read the last sentence and am wondering about the medium-term effects of edibles. Anyway, the greatest surfer in the world is just a freakishly strong swimmer with a fiberglass board — until the right wave comes along. The Nazaré Canyon generates the biggest waves and, therefore, the most potential for greatness.