The Pandemic Blew Company Forecasting to Pieces
Five strategies to make smarter predictions in the unpredictable year ahead
Demand forecasting — predicting what products or services customers want, how much, and when — is one of the most important disciplines in running a business, dictating decisions on staffing levels, inventory, pricing, supply chain management, and more.
As tricky as demand forecasting can be even in the best of times, Covid-19 has blown it to pieces, jumbling normal data patterns and leaving companies uncertain on how to anticipate consumer demand for their products and services.
More than 850 sports events, concerts, conventions, and other large gatherings were called off in February and March. In one relatively small economic microcosm alone, major tech conferences, cancellations had already cost airlines, hotels, restaurants, transportation services, and others that depend on the gatherings more than $1 billion by mid-March.
But even as those businesses were hurting, the companies that sell electronics, comfort food, and home improvement items have seen business boom as consumers staying closer to home alter their habits. E-commerce soared 76% in June year over year, according to one report.
“Most of the critical demand…
